Chaostheorie en Frequentie- Verdelingen van Stormvloeden en Rivierafvoeren (Theory of Chaos in Relation to Frequency Distribution of Storm Surges and River Discharges)

摘要

The assessment of design data of structures for safeguarding against high storm surges or river floods is currently carried out using frequency analysis of actual data. Design data are found by extrapolation of fitted frequency curves up to design frequencies, which correspond to return periods being a multiple of the available period of observations. The recent development from simple to advanced methods has not changed the fact that values are assessed for an area beyond our vision. This is unsatisfactory since the real risk remains unknown. However, the hope exists that the Theory of Chaos can give an indication to a solution. If it would be possible to construct an attractor of the atmospheric phenomena causing storm surges and river floods, then a more physical approach, leading to a better notion of the acting mechanisms might come within our range of vision.