Risk Assessment of New Chemical Substances. Quantification of Uncertainty in Estimated PEC-Values of Aquatic Ecosystems

摘要

The estimation of possible environmental concentration (PEC) in aquatic ecosystems, as occurs in risk assessments of new chemical substances, is based on uncertain data. It is shown how the resulting uncertainty in predicted PEC may be quantified analytically by assuming lognormal distributions for all primary model parameters. The impact of quantifying uncertainties on the conclusions that are drawn from a risk assessment is discussed.