Satellite-Derived Rainfall Estimates and Propagation Characteristics Associated with the Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs)

摘要

One of the challenges of a satellite meteorologist is estimating flash flood-producing rainfall from Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs). The paper presents satellite-derived rainfall estimates using the Scofield/Oliver Technique for flash flood producing MCSs. It discusses the verification and accuracy of the estimates and presents a recommendation for improving the rainfall algorithm. Another challenge for the operational meteorologist is predicting how much more rainfall will occur and where will it move. This type of prediction involves determining where MCSs will propagate. Most of the flash floods in the study were produced by backward propagating MCSs. Synoptic patterns are presented for forward and backward propagating MCSs. These patterns form the basis for objective and interactive methods for short range flash flood forecasting for MCSs.