Updated Captial Cost Estimates for Utility Scale Electricity Generating Plants.

摘要

The current and future projected cost and performance characteristics of new electric generating capacity are a critical input into the development of energy projections and analyses. The construction and operating costs, along with the performance characteristics of new generating plants, play an important role in determining the mix of capacity additions that will serve future demand for electricity. These parameters also help to determine how new capacity competes against existing capacity, and the response of the electric generators to the imposition of environmental controls on conventional pollutants or any limitations on greenhouse gas emissions. In 2010, EIA commissioned an external consultant to develop up-to-date cost and performance estimates for utility-scale electric generating plants for AEO 2011. This information allowed EIA to compare the costs of different power plant technologies on a standardized basis and was a key input enhancement to the National Energy Model System (NEMS). For the AEO 2013 development, EIA commissioned the same consultant group to update the cost and performance estimates for each of the technologies evaluated in the original 2010 study. This paper summarizes the results of the findings and discusses how EIA uses the updated information to analyze the development of new capacity in the electric power sector.