Prediction of Groundwater Flow and Mass Transport Using Linear and Nonlinear Estimation Methods

摘要

Geologic formations are heterogeneous with respect to the properties which affect groundwater flow and transport. However, the reliability of predictions can be improved through the effective use of site-specific measurements, descriptions of the spatial structure of geohydrologic properties, and mathematical models of flow and transport. Past research has focused on methods which involve some form of linearization and consequently are applicable to small-variance cases. The applicability of the approach was evaluated through analysis and applications. The methodology is advantageous when the variance of the logarithm of conductivity is large but there are many measurements. Furthermore, this research has combined analytical and numerical methods to extend such methods to large-variability cases. The developed methodologies can be used by modelers in calculating probabilities needed in risk analysis, in selecting sampling strategies, in assessing the degree of contamination, and in devising cost-effective and reliable management policies.