Uncertainty in Modeling Regional Environmental Systems: The Generalization of a Watershed Acidification Model for Predicting Broad Scale Effects

摘要

The study will identify key factors determining watershed responses to acid (sulfur) deposition, in different regions. The study aims at: providing a method of defining a region such that environmental policy directed at alleviating watershed acidification becomes more suited for large scale management of surface water quality; depicting regional characteristics that allow for the usage of a less detailed, thus more aggregated model; and providing an operational concept of critical loads for policy insight into watershed quality as a function of the spatial zoning of watersheds. To keep the study manageable, an existing model has been used to illustrate the above goals. The model that has been used predicts acidification of surface water, i.e. lakes and watersheds. The model is part of the Regional Acidification, Information and Simulation (RAINS) model, developed at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), and is therefore called the RAINS Lake Model.