Use of Climatic Data for the Prediction of Permanent Deformation in Flexible Pavements

摘要

The purpose of the report is to present a method that uses climatic data for the prediction of permanent deformation in asphalt overlays on the top of concrete pavements. Thirty years of detailed climatic data from the Dallas area were collected to calculate the temperature variations in asphalt concrete overlays by a heat transfer computer program. After extensive statistical analysis, a regression model was developed to simulate the temperature fluctuations in asphalt overlays, and a small number of mini-seasonal profiles were obtained to describe the temperature variations for the prediction of permanent deformation by a modified finite-element computer program. The regression model can also be used as a means to find a relationship between temperature variations and traffic patterns. The analysis method can be applied to low temperature thermal cracking prediction and resilience studies, and can be used for any pavement system, meteorological condition, and geographical location.