International Macroeconomic Adjustment, 1987-92: A World Model Approach

摘要

The main purpose of the paper is to examine the Economic Analysis and Prospects Division (IECAP) forecast on key economic indicators for the major industrial countries in light of the forecasts produced by organizations outside the Bank using linked models. Researchers introduced Bank assumptions about exchange rates and commodity prices into three global models. Differences existed between the IECAP forecasts and the model results, and between the three model forecasts. But given Bank assumptions, the three models agreed on the medium-term forecast: low growth in 1989 and/or 1990, the recovery in the United States in 1991 and 1992. Simulations on all three models also produced the same conclusion about policy: that the global economy is most likely to stabilize in the 1990s through a combination of fiscal contraction and monetary easing in the United States combined with fiscal expansion in Japan. (Copyright (c) 1989 The World Bank.)