World Wheat Market-Government Intervention and Multilateral Policy Reform

摘要

Negotiators in the Uruguay Round of negotiations under the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade have proposed policy reforms that could phase out government supports to agriculture that distort production, consumption, and trade. If complete multilateral trade reform occurs for all commodities, world wheat prices could rise considerably in the long run and patterns of production, consumption, and stockholding would change. The total volume of world wheat trade is unlikely to change substantially, but the countries that are now major market players would fare differently. Trade policy reform would likely enhance the U.S. position in world wheat trade since the most efficient producers would be expected to fare the best.