Price Prospects for Major Primary Commodities, 1988-2000. Quarterly Review ofCommodity Markets, Third Quarter 1990

摘要

On average, non-fuel commodity prices rose by 2.6% between June and August 1990.The only major sub-index which increased, however, was metals and minerals, which rose by 8.6%. Copper, aluminum, nickel, and lead all sustained increases during this period. The increases for copper, nickel, and lead were largely related to supply disruptions. Crude oil prices surged in August and September following the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait and the subsequent embargo on Iraq and of Iraqi and Kuwaiti oil exports. The embargo meant an immediate reduction of oil supplies of 4 mb/d. This shortfall has been mostly made up by increases in OPEC production and some run-down of floating storage. Thermal coal prices have shown little change since crude oil prices increased. The impact of crude oil price increases on coal prices is not likely to be as large as in the oil price increases of the 1970s.