Performance of Three Mountain Pine Beetle Damage Models Compared to ActualOutbreak Histories

摘要

To aid forest managers in estimating mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonusponderosae Hopkins) losses in lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) stands, damage models have been developed as extensions to the Prognosis Model for Stand Development (Prognosis Model). In evaluations of three mountain pine beetle extensions to the Prognosis Model, their predictions were compared to known histories of losses. Evaluations included bias and standard deviation for the predicted volume lost to mountain pine beetle and the median diameter of the trees killed by the insect. Bias of models was also evaluated in relation to variables such as top height and relative density of the stands. The significant correlations varied with the different models. None of the models behaved best in all comparisons.