Scheme for Nowcasting Heavy Rainfall from Mesoscale Convective Systems

摘要

NESDIS (National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service) is nowdeveloping a Prototype Flash Flood Estimation and NOWCASTING Scheme (PROFFENS). NOWCASTING consists of a detailed description of the current weather along with a short-range forecast for the next 0-12 hours (Scofield and Weiss, 1977). Of course, precipitation observations, precipitation estimates derived from radar, surface and upper air observations and numerical and statistical forecast models and guidance products are used PROFFENS. NOWCASTS from this will aid forecasters in evaluating flash flood situations and in the issuance of flash flood watches and warnings. Precipitation NOWCASTS can also be inserted into hydrological models for predicting river/stream flow rates and flood crests. The paper will briefly describe the components of PROFFENS; a case study is also presented. A more detailed discussion of PROFFENS and additional case studies will be presented in a NESDIS Tech Memo to be published in the near future.