U.S. Adjustment in the 1990's: A CGE Analysis of Alternative Trade Strategies

摘要

The paper investigates the implications for the structure of the U.S. economy of a reduction in the U.S. trade deficit. It explores two alternative adjustment scenarios. First, the authors assume an environment of successful world trade liberalization. An alternative view is that the world economy will lapse into a protectionist environment. A 30-sector computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the United States is used to analyze the impact of the two scenarios. When analyzing the protectionist scenario, a variety of experiments are designed to explore the impact of protectionist policies on the U.S. economy.