Effects of Fiscal Policy on Agriculture and the Rural Economy

摘要

The authors found little evidence in the literature regarding fiscal policy tosupport a relationship between deficits, interest rates, and exchange rates. They present some empirical evidence suggesting that real growth, the trade balance, and soybean prices are affected by Federal budget deficits. However, fiscal policy seems less important than monetary policy in the determination of real activity and interest rates. Fiscal policy is also less important than monetary policy--or commodity-specific production, use, and stocks--in the determination of agricultural commodity prices. Simulation results suggest that fiscal policy changes do not have significantly different effects on the nonmetro unemployment rate relative to the total civilian unemployment rate.