Model for Short Term Agricultural Price Monitoring and Forecasting

摘要

The price monitoring and forecasting model used by the Government of thePhilippines' Department of Agriculture is described herein. The model allows one to compare how prices in agricultural markets have moved in actual fact in the recent past with how they would have moved if they had followed normal seasonal patterns. This can serve as an early warning system by drawing prompt attention to abnormal movements in market prices. In addition, the model allows one to make forecasts of prices for the short-term future. The model is flexible enough that it can be applied to any agricultural crop that exhibits seasonal price patterns and can be used at the national or regional level. The manual is divided into two chapters. The first describes the theory behind the model, while the second describes the mechanical process of generating the forecast in a Lotus 1-2-3 spreadsheet and describes how to produce the forecast report in a suitable form.