Time Dependent Zonally Averaged Energy Balance Model to Be Incorporated intoIMAGE Integrated Model to Assess the Greenhouse Effect

摘要

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is placing increasingemphasis on the use of time-dependent impact models that are linked with energy-emission accounting frameworks and models that predict in a time-dependent fashion important variables such as atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases, surface temperature and precipitation. Integrating these tools (greenhouse gas emission strategies, atmospheric processes, ecological impacts) into what is called an integrated assessment model will assist policymakers in the IPCC and elsewhere to assess the impacts of a wide variety of emission strategies. The Integrated Model to Assess the Greenhouse Effect (IMAGE; developed at RIVM) represents such an integrated assessment model which already calculates historical and future effects of greenhouse gas emissions on global surface temperature, sea level rise and other ecological and socioeconomic impacts. In the paper the authors lay the scientific and numerical basis for a two-dimensional Energy Balance Model (EBM) to be integrated into the climate module of IMAGE which will ultimately provide scenarios of surface temperature and precipitation, resolved with respect to latitude and height. The paper will deal specifically with temperature; following papers will deal with precipitation.