Roles That Numerical Models Can Play in Emergency Response

摘要

Four points are presented with regard to a perspective on modeling for emergency preparedness. First, and probably foremost, modeling should be considered a tool, along with measurements and experience when used for emergency preparedness. The second point is that the potential for large errors associated with knowing the source term during an accident should not be used as a guide for determining the level of the model development and application. There are many other uses for models than estimating consequences, given the source term. These uses range from estimating the source term to bracketing the problem at hand. The third point is that several levels of model complexity should be considered when addressing emergency response. These levels can vary from the simple Gaussian calculation to the more complex three-dimensional transport and diffusion calculations where terrain and vertical and horizontal shears in the wind fields can be modeled. Lastly, proper interaction and feedback between model results and measurements enhances the capabilities of each if they were applied independently for emergency response purposes.