Modeling the Soviet Economy for Recovery after a Nuclear Attack: An Examination of Capital Accumulation, Labor Force Skill Levels, and Interactions with Agricultural Output

摘要

Research is conducted on the various types of postattack recovery models available in the unclassified literature. Problems of economic substitution, and the Soviet disaster recovery experience are examined. Identification of the critical factors affecting post-disaster economic recovery is attempted. A four-sector input/output - based economic growth model is linked to a three level education and personnel allocation system that includes age-specific death rates and labor force decrements due to training system development and military service. A ceiling is placed on annual percent increase in capital stock, and labor force deaths due to starvation are coupled to agricultural output. Results indicate possible masking of capital stock ceiling effects by the size of the starvation dieoff effects. (Author)