Production function application attempt in electricity generation forecasting

摘要

A modified Cobb-Douglas production function is applied to evaluate level of electricity generation for medium and long term prognosis (up to 2010) in an easy and simple way. The test calculations have been done for hard coal fired power plants, based on generation data supplied in Main Statistical Office of Poland publications.The model of electricity generation is defined using data on capital of a typical productivity power plant and its employment for time series 1980-90. The test calculation results based on the parameters of Rosenbroock's optimization procedure of electricity generation model are presented. The method described is distinguished for its high accuracy as compared to classical methods despite the relatively short time series. It is suitable for studies in electricity generation policy . 1 tab. (Atomindex citation 28:028693)