Cyclonic activity in a warmer climate

摘要

A coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model was used to investigate potential changes of cyclonic activity due to a transient rise of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration. Regional different responses of cyclonic activity are found for boreal winter. One of the most prominent features is an increase over western Europe. Changes in the bandpass filtered variance of the geopotential height field (storm track) are consistent with three-dimensional changes of the basic state, in particular with changes in Eady growth rate at different pressure levels. For the Atlantic and the European region, the intensification of the storm track is associated with a larger number of cyclones. In this region, the frequencies of extreme windspeed and precipitation events have been increasing. (orig.)