Coal Availability: Issues in Assessing US Coal Reserves and Resources

摘要

There are a number of important uncertainties about the economic significance of US coal resources. These uncertainties can be categorized as affecting: the physical size and location of coal resources and reserves; the regional and local variation in coal quality; and the legal and economic availability of coal resources. A more precise understanding of coal availability is important. Richard Schmidt has suggested that consumer undertainty about reserve magnitude and availability may be exploited by producers in setting contract prices, and it has been suggested that errors in assessing the geological and legal recoverability of coal resources may affect coal prices more significantly than variability in estimates of production and distribution costs. Further, misconceptions about coal availability are more likely to cause underestimates then overestimates of future prices. The objectives of this paper are: to discuss some methods used in modeling the nation's coal reserves; and to identify some of the problems involved. The issue of coal availability is addressed in an effort to suggest the need for a systematic approach to the problem. (ERA citation 06:023059)