Simulation of traffic flow during emergency evacuations: A microcomputer based modeling system

摘要

Evacuation is one of the major and often preferred protective action options available for emergency management in times of threat to the general public. One of the key factors used in evaluating the effectiveness of evacuation as a protective action option is the estimate of time required for evacuation. The time required for evacuation is the time associated with clearing an area at risk to areas far enough away to be considered safe. Computer simulation models of traffic flow are used to estimate the time it takes to evacuate or ''clear'' an at-risk region by means of vehicular evacuation. This paper provides a brief description of the Oak Ridge Evacuation Modeling System (OREMS), a prototype under development at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory. OREMS consists of a set of computer programs and models which can be used to simulate traffic flow during regional population evacuations and to develop evacuation plans for different events and scenarios (e.g. good vs. bad weather and nighttime vs. daytime evacuations) for user-defined spatial boundaries.