Energy systems and CO(sub 2) constraints. An integrated Assessment of energy technologies for reducing CO(sub 2) emissions at least costs in the Netherlands beyond 2000

摘要

In order to detect cost-effective long term CO(sub 2) reduction strategies several scenarios are calculated with drastic (up to 80%) reductions of national CO(sub 2) emissions in 2030 and beyond. Use has been made of the energy system model MARKAL. Using detailed compilations of data characterising available and prospective energy technologies, and incorporating projections and assumptions about the costs and availability of fuels, the model configures an optimal mix of technologies to satisfy the specified useful energy demands. Techno-economic characteristics (lifetime, investment costs, availability, energy efficiency) for ca. 400 (new) energy technologies are compiled in this report. The model is used in a national costs minimizing mode with exogenous national maximum allowable emissions ('bubble' concept), optimising the energy system for the period 2000 to 2040 simultaneously in steps of 5 years each. Few institutional and market barriers are assumed, to reflect the maximum potential of (new) energy technologies. On the other hand bounds are imposed on the speed of market penetration for new energy technologies to prevent unrealistic solutions, and there are lower bounds to ensure that older technologies will not be phased out too rapidly. The model optimises with a 5% discount rate. The following groups of energy technologies are identified as 'robust' to CO(sub 2) constraints. These technologies are attractive in at least three out of four technological mainstreams to reduce CO(sub 2) emissions: energy saving measures and efficient appliances; selected renewable energy technologies; heat pumps; fuel cells; electrification; and hydrogen. 44 figs., 35 tabs., 25 refs.