Predicting social impacts associated with roadway development in a scenic area

摘要

The issue of predicting social impacts that could result from the construction and use of new roadways is one that faces, or will face, many communities in the U.S. and throughout the world. Where road development takes place in a scenic area, especially one that is dependent on tourist trade, the nature of the secondary land conversion that often accompanies road construction is especially important. We have assessed the social impacts likely to accompany construction of a scenic parkway in a rural area abutting the Great Smoky Mountains National Park. In this paper, we share the substantive findings of that study as well as our methodological observations on the challenges of projecting impacts in an area that has no planning or zoning, a situation that is common to many rural areas. We also discuss how we dealt with the fact that the major effects of the project would not begin until nearly 15 years in the future, when construction is completed and the roadway is opened to traffic. In order to predict land use patterns at the completion of roadway construction, we studied plat maps, which accurately reflect changing ownership patterns before such changes become apparent on the ground. We also conducted interviews with local realtors and developers who, in the absence of a local government planning department, tend to be the best sources of information concerning local land use trends. Uncertainty of future events was accounted for by projecting impacts for different scenarios, reflecting varying rates of growth and types of development. We believe that the description of our methodological approach should prove helpful to other analysts faced with the need to predict long-term transformations without the benefit of existing land use plans. In our assessment, we examined potential effects to local population, housing, land use, public services, taxes, economic structure, cultural resources, and social structure. Our findings are discussed briefly in this paper.