Fujian electric system analysis and nuclear power planning

摘要

The objective of the study is to conduct a long term electric expansion planning and nuclear power planning for Fujian Province. The Wien Automatic System Planning Package (WASP-III) is used to optimize the electric system. Probabilistic Simulation is one of the most favorite techniques for middle and long term generation and production cost planning of electric power system. The load duration curve is obtained by recording the load data of a time interval into a monotone non-increasing sense. Polynomial function is used to describe the load duration curve (LDC), and this LDC is prepared for probabilistic simulation in WASP-III. WASP-III is a dynamic optimizing module in the area of supply modelling. It could find out the economically optimal expansion plan for a power generating system over a period of up to thirty years, with the constraints given by the planners. The optimum is evaluated in terms of minimum discounted total costs. Generating costs, amount of energy not served and reliability of the system are analyzed in the system expansion planning by using the probabilistic simulation method. The following conclusions can be drawn from this study. Hydro electricity is the cheapest one of all available technologies and resources. After the large hydro station is committed at the end of 1995, more base load power plants are needed in the system. Coal-fired power plants with capacity of 600 MWe will be the most competitive power plants in the future of the system. At the end of the studying period, about half of the stalled capacity will be composed of these power plants. Nuclear power plants with capacity of 600 MWe are suitable for the system after the base load increases to a certain level. Oil combustion units will decrease the costs of the system. (12 tabs., 6 figs.). (Atomindex citation 27:011429)