Transportation technology transitions and macroeconomic growth -- Contemporary evidence

摘要

This paper presents international and temporal extensions of evidence for a theory developed by the author concerning the interaction of transportation technology transitions and macroeconomic growth. The period 1970 to the present is examined for the nations of Japan, the US, and Europe (France, Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom collectively). An addition to the abstract logic supporting the general arguments of the theory is also presented. The theory has been developed concerning the role of significant transportation technology transitions as a cause of significant macroeconomic declines in nations for which the manufacture of transportation vehicles (ships, locomotives, and automobiles) is a dominant economic activity. The theory offers an explanation for periods of pronounced multiyear decline in economic growth rate--sometimes called depressions and sometimes called stagnations. One purpose of this paper is to explore whether or not Japan and Europe have each recently experienced a multiyear event of this type. In the theory and the evidence presented for it, environmental regulation of transportation vehicles has been shown to be an initiating cause of significant technical change, with sharp, sustained fuel price increases being a second frequent initiating cause. These causes of significant technical change, and their possible consequences, are potentially important considerations for those proposing policies to deal with global warming, since both fuel economy regulation and fuel price increases have been recommended by policy analysts as means to reduce transportation's contribution to global warming. The theory has been offered and supported by publications developing mathematical models and examining US historical evidence consistent with the theory.