Risk assessment methodologies for nuclear weapons compared to risk assessment methodologies for nuclear reactors

摘要

There are major differences between the safety principles for nuclear weapons and for nuclear reactors. For example, a principal concern for nuclear weapons is to prevent electrical energy from reaching the nuclear package during accidents produced by crashes, fires, and other hazards, whereas the foremost concern for nuclear reactors is to maintain coolant around the core in the event of certain system failures. Not surprisingly, new methods have had to be developed to assess the risk from nuclear weapons. These include fault tree transformations that accommodate time dependencies, thermal and structural analysis techniques that are fast and unconditionally stable, and Monte-Carlo-based sampling methods that incorporate intelligent searching. This paper provides an overview of the new methods for nuclear weapons, compares them with existing methods for nuclear reactors, identifies some of their dual-use characteristics, and discusses ongoing developmental activities.