Evaluation of tradeoffs among costs and benefits of material-control measures, confidence-building and verification measures, and nonproliferation and arms-controls objectives

摘要

We have used multiattribute utility analysis to evaluate the costs and benefits of material-protection, control, and accounting measures combined with confidence-building and verification measures for several nonproliferation and arms-control applications, ranging from fissile-material disposition to confidence-building measures for the Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention. Costs include direct and indirect private and government financial costs and national-security costs. Benefits include increased resistance to theft and diversion, decreased asset attractiveness, increased probability of detection, and increased transparency. We determine key attributes and the preferences of stakeholder groups, such as governmental agencies, the public, and other countries by elicitation of expert opinion and tradeoff preferences from expert groups representing each stakeholder. Our analysis helps prioritize among the various arms-control options, based on informed decision-making and assists consensus building.