Correlation between outgoing longwave radiation and surface temperature in the Tropical Pacific: A model interpretation

摘要

Results from the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project show that atmospheric general circulation models tend to underestimate the emission of anomalous heat to space during the 1987 El Nino episode in the tropical Pacific. This systematic bias implies that the models are underestimating negative feedbacks on climate that involve longwave radiation in the tropical atmosphere. These results are consistent with analyses of paleo-data that suggest climate models generally overestimate climate sensitivity in the tropics.