Assessment of Tools and Data for System-Level Dynamic Analyses

摘要

The only fuel cycle for which dynamic analyses and assessments are not needed is the null fuel cycle - no nuclear power. For every other concept, dynamic analyses are needed and can influence relative desirability of options. Dynamic analyses show how a fuel cycle might work during transitions from today's partial fuel cycle to something more complete, impact of technology deployments, location of choke points, the key time lags, when benefits can manifest, and how well parts of fuel cycles work together. This report summarizes the readiness of existing Fuel Cycle Technology (FCT) tools and data for conducting dynamic analyses on the range of options. VISION is the primary dynamic analysis tool. Not only does it model mass flows, as do other dynamic system analysis models, but it allows users to explore various potential constraints. The only fuel cycle for which constraints are not important are those in concept advocates PowerPoint presentations; in contrast, comparative analyses of fuel cycles must address what constraints exist and how they could impact performance. The most immediate tool need is extending VISION to the thorium/U233 fuel cycle. Depending on further clarification of waste management strategies in general and for specific fuel cycle candidates, waste management sub-models in VISION may need enhancement, e.g., more on 'co-flows' of non-fuel materials, constraints in waste streams, or automatic classification of waste streams on the basis of user-specified rules. VISION originally had an economic sub-model.