CASL L2 Mileston Report: VUQ.Y1.03, 'Enable Statistical Sensitivity and UQ Demonstrations for VERA'

摘要

The CASL Level 2 Milestone VUQ.Y1.03, Enable statistical sensitivity and UQ demonstrations for VERA, was successfully completed in March 2011. The VUQ focus area led this effort, in close partnership with AMA, and with support from VRI. DAKOTA was coupled to VIPRE-W thermal-hydraulics simulations representing reactors of interest to address crud-related challenge problems in order to understand the sensitivity and uncertainty in simulation outputs with respect to uncertain operating and model form parameters. This report summarizes work coupling the software tools, characterizing uncertainties, selecting sensitivity and uncertainty quantification algorithms, and analyzing the results of iterative studies. These demonstration studies focused on sensitivity and uncertainty of mass evaporation rate calculated by VIPRE-W, a key predictor for crud-induced power shift (CIPS).