Prospects for electric and hybrid electric vehicles: Second-stage results of a two-stage Delphi study

摘要

This study was conducted to collect information for a technical and economic assessment of electric (EV) and hybrid (HEV) vehicles. The first-stage worldwide survey was completed in fall 1994, while the second-stage was completed by summer 1995. The paper reports results from the second round of the survey and major differences between the two rounds. This second-stage international survey obtained information from 93 expert respondents from the automotive technology field. Key results: EVs will penetrate the market first, followed by internal combustion engine HEVs, while gas turbine and fuel cell HEVs will come after 2020. By 2020, EVs and internal combustion engine HEVs will have a 15% share of the new vehicle market; they will also cost 18-50% more and will be slightly inferior to 1993 gasoline cars. AC induction motor is projected to be superior to DC and DC brushless motors by 2020, although the DC motor will be less expensive in 2000. DC brushless motors are projected to be the most expensive. Though generally declining, battery costs will remain high. EVs are believed to be effective in reducing urban emissions; however, their costs must be reduced drastically. Petroleum is expected to be the predominant fuel for hybrid vehicles through 2020. Mean energy equivalent fuel economy of electric drivetrain vehicles is projected to be 20-40% greater than for conventional vehicles in 2000, and to rise a few percents during the projection period. Respondents anticipate only a 16% increase in conventional vehicle fuel economy from 2000 to 2020.