Knowledge fusion: Time series modeling followed by pattern recognition applied to unusual sections of background data

摘要

This report describes work performed during FY 95 for the Knowledge Fusion Project, which by the Department of Energy, Office of Nonproliferation and National Security. The project team selected satellite sensor data as the one main example to which its analysis algorithms would be applied. The generic problem is to recognize events of interest from multiple time series in a possibly noisy background. By implementing a suite of time series modeling and forecasting methods and using well-chosen alarm criteria, we reduce the number of false alarms. We then further reduce the number of false alarms by analyzing all suspicious sections of data, as judged by the alarm criteria, with pattern recognition methods. This report describes the implementation and application of this two-step process for separating events from unusual background.