Outlook and challenges to coal in Asia: 1994--2015

摘要

The two key threats to coal's long term dominance in Asia are: (1) its uneven distribution of reserves and lack of adequate rail transportation infrastructure, and (2) growing environmental concerns about coal-related pollution. Even with increased attention to emissions control for coal, continued growth in coal consumption is expected to result in further deterioration of the environment in Asia for another one to two decades. China will remain the largest polluter in Asia, but it's believed it will become Asia's largest user of emissions control technology by 2015. The authors have subjectively weighed the above constraints to increased coal use in preparing the projections of the future role of coal in the Asian region. This paper shows past trends in coal production and consumption, plus projections of coal production, consumption and trade over the 1994--2015 period. The projections in this paper are useful as a general indicator of long term patterns in Asia. However, there are too many uncertainties about economic growth rates and energy and environmental policies to suggest that the projections will be accurate for every economy. This paper concludes with the preliminary results of research under way, which suggests that increasing economic wealth in China is the most important factor in solving China's coal-related pollution problems.