Nuclear Energy in Western Europe: At the End of its Business Cycle. A review of policies in selected West European countries and Russia

摘要

A series of seminars were held in Norway in 1995-97 focusing on nuclear energy policies, mainly in Europe. The key questions were: (1) What are the major driving forces behind the development of the nuclear industry., and (2) Are we seeing the end of the nuclear energy era, or will we actually discover that the nuclear energy is moving towards its second blossom. This report summarizes the discussions at the seminars and discusses the above questions. The nature of the driving forces depends on the country in question. In France and Russia the nuclear sectors are large and prestigious and the course is difficult to change. In Germany and Sweden, political parties have adopted an anti-nuclear attitude and the issue is controversial, involving arguments both pro and con. The British nuclear sector has come to the end of the road. The main driving force has been the deregulation of the electricity market. In all countries, climate issues, independence from energy import, prestige and low costs have been arguments against close-downs. Massive expansion of nuclear power in Europe is unlikely. However, new plants might appear in Finland, Turkey or France. It is likely that technological development of the nuclear power sector, if any, will come in Asia. It is unclear whether this sector will benefit from climate issues. Renewable energy could become an important competitor if enough electricity could be produced. A state has been reached in which nuclear energy is both difficult to expand and to phase out. The nuclear energy issues are unlikely to affect the European gas market significantly. 53 refs., 10 refs., 13 tabs.