Do forest gap model simulations of climate change effects have a catastrophist bias

摘要

Forest gap simulation models have been widely used to project potential effects of global climate change on forest ecosystems. These projections are given high visibility in governmental and intergovernmental reports that are part of the basis for formulating national and international policy regarding global change. The most recent draft report from the IPCC is but one of many cases where the results from forest gap simulation models have been used as the best available projection of the effects of climate change on forests.