Coal investment and long-term supply and demand outlook for coal in the Asia-Pacific Region

摘要

The theme of this symposium to look ahead almost a quarter century to 2020 gives one the freedom to speculate more than usual in projections for coal. It is important to attempt to take a long term look into the future of coal and energy, so that one can begin to prepare for major changes on the horizon. However, it would be a mistake to believe that the crystal ball for making long term projections is accurate for 2020. Hopefully it can suggest plausible changes that have long term strategic importance to Asia's coal sector. This paper presents the medium scenario of long term projects of coal production, consumption, imports and exports in Asia. The second part of the paper examines the two major changes in Asia that could be most important to the long term role of coal. These include: (1) the impact of strict environmental legislation on energy and technology choices in Asia, and (2) the increased role of the private sector in all aspects of coal in Asia.