Role of nuclear energy in mitigating greenhouse warming

摘要

A behavioral, top-down, forced-equilibrium market model of long-term ((approximately) 2,100) global energy-economics interactions has been modified with a bottom-up nuclear energy model and used to construct consistent scenarios describing future impacts of civil nuclear materials flows in an expanding, multi-regional (13) world economy. The relative measures and tradeoffs between economic (GNP, tax impacts, productivity, etc.), environmental (greenhouse gas accumulations, waste accumulation, proliferation risk), and energy (resources, energy mixes, supply-side versus demand-side attributes) interactions that emerge from these analyses are focused herein on advancing understanding of the role that nuclear energy (and other non-carbon energy sources) might play in mitigating greenhouse warming. Two ostensibly opposing scenario drivers are investigated: (a) demand-side improvements in (non-price-induced) autonomous energy efficiency improvements; and (b) supply- side carbon-tax inducements to shift energy mixes towards reduced- or non- carbon forms. In terms of stemming greenhouse warming for minimal cost of greenhouse-gas abatement, and with the limitations of the simplified taxing schedule used, a symbiotic combination of these two approaches may offer advantages not found if each is applied separately.