Probabilistic Accident Consequence Uncertainty Analysis: Uncertainty Assessment for Deposited Material and External Doses. Volume 1. Main Report.

摘要

This volume is the first of a two-volume document that summarizes a joint project conducted by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the European Commission to assess uncertainties in the MACCS and COSYMA probabilistic accident consequence codes. These codes were developed primarily for estimating the risks presented by nuclear reactors based on postulated frequencies and magnitudes of potential accidents. This document reports on an ongoing project to assess uncertainty in the MACCS and COSYMA calculations for the offsite consequences of radionuclide releases by hypothetical nuclear power plant accidents. A panel of ten experts was formed to compile credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the deposited material and external dose code input variables that affect calculations of offsite consequences. The expert judgement elicitation procedure and its outcomes are described in these volumes. Volume I contains background information and a complete description of the joint consequences uncertainty study along with a summary of the results of this aspect of the study.