Forcast of TEXT plasma disruptions using soft X-rays as input signal in a neural network

摘要

A feed-forward neural network with two hidden layers is used in this work to forecast major and minor disruptive instabilities in TEXT discharges. Using soft X-ray signals as input data, the neural net is trained with one disruptive plasma pulse, and a different disruptive discharge is used for validation. After being properly trained the networks, with the same set of weights. is then used to forecast disruptions in two others different plasma pulses. It is observed that the neural net is able to predict the incoming of a disruption more than 3 ms in advance. This time interval is almost three times longer than the one already obtained previously when magnetic signal from a Mirnov coil was used to feed the neural networks with. To our own eye we fail to see any indication of an upcoming disruption from the experimental data this far back from the time of disruption. Finally, from what we observe in the predictive behavior of our network, speculations are made whether the disruption triggering mechanism would be associated to an increase of the m = 2 magnetic island, that disturbs the central part of the plasma column afterwards or, in face of the results from this work, the initial perturbation would have occurred first in the central part of the plasma column, within the q = 1 magnetic surface, and then the m = 2 MHD mode would be destabilized afterwards.