Review of modeling issues and analysis methods for the thermal response of cargoes transported in the Safe Secure Trailer subjected to fire environments

摘要

This paper discusses thermal analysis in support of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) to predict the heating of cargoes shipped in vehicles like the Safe Secure Trailer. Fire environments contribute very significantly to the risk associated with ground transport of special nuclear materials. The tradeoff between thermal model complexity and the affordable number of scenarios used to represent the hazard space is discussed as it impacts PRA. The relevant heat transfer mechanisms are discussed along with the applicability of methods from the literature for analysis of these mechanisms. Many of the subject's real problems remain too complex for affordable and rigorous analysis. Available models are generally restricted to idealizations that are quickly obviated by real effects. Approximate treatment methods, striving to produce conservative, realistic estimates are also discussed.