Modeling the infrastructure dynamics of China -- Water, agriculture, energy, and greenhouse gases

摘要

A comprehensive critical infrastructure analysis of the People's Republic of China was performed to address questions about China's ability to meet its long-term grain requirements and energy needs and to estimate greenhouse gas emissions in China likely to result from increased agricultural production and energy use. Four dynamic computer simulation models of China's infrastructures-- water, agriculture, energy and greenhouse gas--were developed to simulate, respectively, the hydrologic budgetary processes, grain production and consumption, energy demand, and greenhouse gas emissions in China through 2025. The four models were integrated into a state-of-the-art comprehensive critical infrastructure model for all of China. This integrated model simulates diverse flows of commodities, such as water and greenhouse gas, between the separate models to capture the overall dynamics of the integrated system. The model was used to generate projections of China's available water resources and expected water use for 10 river drainage regions representing 100% of China's mean annual runoff and comprising 37 major river basins. These projections were used to develop estimates of the water surpluses and/or deficits in the three end- use sectors--urban, industrial, and agricultural--through the year 2025. Projections of the all-China demand for the three major grains (corn, wheat, and rice), meat, and other (other grains and fruits and vegetables) were also generated. Each geographic region's share of the all-China grain demand (allocated on the basis of each region's share of historic grain production) was calculated in order to assess the land and water resources in each region required to meet that demand. Growth in energy use in six historically significant sectors and growth in greenhouse gas loading were projected for all of China.