How the Guangzhou Government Can Curtail Air Pollution from Road Traffic in a Least Costly Manner

摘要

This thesis explores the relationship between the increased motorized traffic and air pollution in urban Guangzhou, the prosperous capital of the Guangdong Province in southern China that is located in the vicinity of Hong Kong and Macao. The emphasis is placed on PM 10 pollutants (particles of less than 10 microns in size). It reviews the current status of ambient air quality, the harmful effects of PM 10 emissions on human health and how to reduce the problem. It is estimated that 3300 premature deaths per year could be avoided if Guangzhou met the Class II of the Chinese National Ambient Air Quality Standard for PM 10, and the Guangzhou Government could save 10% of its GDP in 1994. A theoretical framework for reducing pollution problems is presented based on cost-effectiveness theory. There is also an overview of possible pollution reducing measures based on worldwide experience. The theoretical framework is applied to a case study of selected measures: (1) reduced sulfur content of diesel fuel, (2) creating bus lanes, (3) fuel taxation, (4) introduction of toll roads, (5) measures on the metro line. The bus lane measure is found to be the most cost-effective one, followed by the toll road and fuel taxation measures. The metro measure is the most expensive one. Finally, the report recommends to the Guangzhou Government what measures should have first priority according to cost-effectiveness. 23 refs., 14 figs., 21 tabs.