Modeling Clean and Secure Energy Scenarios for the Indian Power Sector in 2030.

摘要

Recent developments in renewable energy (RE) related to upward revisions to potential estimates, declining costs, and improved performance have created new opportunities for using RE to cost-effectively meet energy security challenges in India. Under the “Modestly Secure and Clean” scenario, 40% of energy needs in 2030 are met by wind (15%), solar (10%), other RE (5%), and energy efficiency (10%) at a cost comparable to the “Baseline” scenario where only 10% of the electricity demand is provided by these resources and will lead to elimination of coal imports. If the rapid drop of solar prices continues, an electricity mix where 60% of the demand is provided by these sources can be achieved at comparable costs. Given the seasonal and diurnal complementary nature of solar and wind resources in India, and high-level of correlation with the load shape, such a mix is both cost effective and technically feasible.