Proliferation Risk Characterization Model Prototype Model: User and Programmer211 Guidelines

摘要

A model for the estimation of the risk of diversion of weapons-capable materials211u001ewas developed. It represents both the threat of diversion and site vulnerability 211u001eas a product of a small number of variables (two to eight), each of which can 211u001etake on a small number (two to four) of qualitatively defined (but quantitatively 211u001eimplemented) values. The values of the overall threat and vulnerability variables 211u001eare then converted to threat and vulnerability categories. The threat and 211u001evulnerability categories are used to define the likelihood of diversion, also 211u001edefined categorically. The evaluator supplies an estimate of the consequences of 211u001ea diversion, defined categorically, but with the categories based on the IAEA 211u001eAttractiveness levels. Likelihood and Consequences categories are used to define 211u001ethe Risk, also defined categorically. The threat, vulnerability, and consequences 211u001einput provided by the evaluator contains a representation of his/her uncertainty 211u001ein each variable assignment which is propagated all the way through to the 211u001ecalculation of the Risk categories.