Threshold Assessment: Definition of Acceptable Sites as Part of Site Selectionfor the Japanese HLW Program

摘要

For the last ten years, the Japanese High-Level Nuclear Waste (HLW) repositoryprogram has focused on assessing the feasibility of a basic repository concept, which resulted in the recently published H12 Report. As Japan enters the implementation phase, a new organization must identify, screen and choose potential repository sites. Thus, a rapid mechanism for determining the likelihood of site suitability is critical. The threshold approach, described here, is a simple mechanism for defining the likelihood that a site is suitable given estimates of several critical parameters. We rely on the results of a companion paper, which described a probabilistic performance assessment simulation of the HLW reference case in the H12 report. The most critical two or three input parameters are plotted against each other and treated as spatial variables. Geostatistics is used to interpret the spatial correlation, which in turn is used to simulate multiple realizations of the parameter value maps. By combining an array of realizations, we can look at the probability that a given site, as represented by estimates of this combination of parameters, would be good host for a repository site.