Monitoring and Evaluation of Smolt Migration in the Columbia Basin : Volume IX : Evaluation of the 2001 Predictions of the Run-Timing of Wild and Hatchery-Reared Migrant Salmon and Steelhead Trout Migrating to Lower Granite, Rock Island, McNary, and John Day Dams using Program RealTime.

摘要

Program RealTime provided tracking and forecasting of the 2001 inseason outmigration via the internet for eighteen PIT-tagged stocks of wild salmon and steelhead to Lower Granite and/or McNary dams and eleven passage-indexed stocks to Rock Island, McNary, or John Day dams. Nine of the PIT-tagged stocks tracked this year were new to the project. Thirteen ESUs of wild subyearling and yearling chinook salmon and steelhead, and one ESU of hatchery-reared sockeye salmon were tracked and forecasted to Lower Granite Dam. Eight wild ESUs of subyearling and yearling chinook salmon, sockeye salmon and steelhead were tracked to McNary Dam for the first time this year. Wild PIT-tagged ESUs tracked to Lower Granite Dam included yearling spring/summer chinook salmon release-recovery stocks (from Bear Valley Creek, Catherine Creek, Herd Creek, Imnaha River, Johnson Creek, Lostine River, Minam River, South Fork Salmon River, Secesh River, and Valley Creek), PIT-tagged wild runs-at-large of yearling chinook salmon and steelhead, and a PIT-tagged stock of subyearling fall chinook salmon. The stock of hatchery-reared PIT-tagged summer-run sockeye salmon smolts outmigrating to Lower Granite Dam, consisted this year of a new stock of fish from Alturas Lake Creek, Redfish Lake Creek Trap and Sawtooth Trap. The passage-indexed stocks, counted using FPC passage indices, included combined wild- and hatchery-reared runs-at-large of subyearling and yearling chinook, coho, and sockeye salmon, and steelhead migrating to Rock Island and McNary dams, and, new this year, combined wild and hatchery subyearling chinook salmon to John Day Dam. Unusual run-timing and fish passage characteristics were observed in this low-flow, negligible-spill migration year. The period for the middle 80% of fish passage (i.e., progress from the 10th to the 90th percentiles) was unusually short for nine out of ten PIT-tagged yearling spring/summer chinook salmon stocks tracked to Lower Granite Dam. It was the shortest on record for seven of these ten stocks. The nine stocks recording unusually short middle 80% periods also recorded higher-than-average recovery percentages. However the opposite trend was observed for the PIT-tagged wild subyearling chinook salmon and hatchery sockeye salmon stocks whose middle 80% period of passage to Lower Granite Dam was average to above average. Recovery percentages for these two stocks were average, compared to historical recoveries. The performance results of Program RealTime to make accurate predictions of percentiles of fish passage at an index site were mixed this year. The release-recovery stocks of wild PIT-tagged spring/summer chinook salmon tracked to Lower Granite Dam were predicted less accurately than usual, on average, with two exceptions. One of these exceptions was a stock that had its best prediction (first-half, last-half, and season-wide) ever to occur. On average, however, performance was down for predicting these stocks. The RealTime Select composite season-wide MAD was 4.3%, larger than the historical average of 2.1%. Passage percentiles for PIT-tagged runs-at-large of wild Snake River yearling and subyearling chinook salmon and of wild steelhead outmigrating to Lower Granite Dam were predicted very well this year, their second year of inclusion in the project, with season-wide MADs of 3.6%, 4.7%, and 1.8% respectively. These results, too, were mixed with respect to comparison with last year's performance. The yearling chinook stock was predicted somewhat better last year (up from 1.7% last year to 3.6% this year) but the subyearling chinook salmon and steelhead stocks were predicted better this year than last, season-wide. The steelhead stock, in particular, was predicted much better this year than last year, down to 1.8% this year from 4.8% last year. The PIT-tagged runs-at-large of wild salmon and steelhead tracked to McNary Dam in 2001 for the first time, were also well-predicted. In particular, the Snake River stocks were well-predicted, with season-wide MADs of 4.7% for subyearling chinook salmon, 3.3% for yearling chinook salmon, and 1.4% for steelhead. All three Snake River stocks were better predicted at McNary Dam than they were at Lower Granite Dam. The Upper Columbia River PIT-tagged runs-at-large of wild subyearling chinook salmon and wild steelhead were not predicted with the remarkable accuracy of the Snake River stocks, but RealTime performance for these stocks was still good, with season-wide MADs of 7.9% and 4.9%, respectively. The results of RealTime predictions of FPC passage-indexed percentiles of combined wild and hatchery-reared salmonids to Rock Island and McNary dams were comparable to last year with respect to the large variability in performance. Like last year some runs were predicted very well while others were predicted very poorly. The stocks predicted best and worst last year were not necessarily the stocks predicted best and worst this year.