Perspective on Reliability: Probability Theory and Beyond

摘要

Reliability assessment in the coming era is inclined to be characterized by adifficult dilemma. On the one hand units and systems will be required to be ultra reliable; on the other hand, it may not be possible to subject them to a full-scale testing. A case in point occurs where testing is limited is one-of-a-kind complex systems, such as space exploration vehicles or where severe testing constraints are imposed such as full scale testing of strategic nuclear weapons prohibited by test ban treaties and international agreements. Decision makers also require reliability assessments for problems with terabytes of data, such as from complex simulations of system performance. Quantitative measures of reliability and their associated uncertainties will remain integral to system monitoring and tactical decision making. The challenge is to derive these defensible measures in light of these dilemmas.