Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) modeled the employment impacts of a major national initiative to accelerate energy efficiency trends at one of two levels: 15 percent savings by 2030. In this scenario, efficiency activities save about 15 percent of the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) Reference Case electricity consumption by 2030. It is assumed that additional energy savings in both the residential and commercial sectors begin in 2015 at zero, and then increase in an S-shaped market penetration curve, with the level of savings equal to about 7.0 percent of the AEO 2014 U.S. national residential and commercial electricity consumption saved by 2020, 14.8 percent by 2025, and 15 percent by 2030. 10 percent savings by 2030. In this scenario, additional savings begin at zero in 2015, increase to 3.8 percent in 2020, 9.8 percent by 2025, and 10 percent of the AEO reference case value by 2030. The analysis of the 15 percent case indicates that by 2030 more than 300,000 new jobs would likely result from such policies, including an annual average of more than 60,000 jobs directly supporting the installation and maintenance of energy efficiency measures and practices. These are new jobs resulting initially from the investment associated with the construction of more energy-efficient new buildings or the retrofit of existing buildings and would be sustained for as long as the investment continues. Based on what is known about the current level of building-sector energy efficiency jobs, this would represent an increase of more than 10 percent from the current estimated level of over 450,000 such jobs. The more significant and longer-lasting effect comes from the redirection of energy bill savings toward the purchase of other goods and services in the general economy, with its attendant influence on increasing the total number of jobs. This example analysis utilized PNNL's ImSET model, a modeling framework that PNNL has used over the past two decades to assess the economic impacts of the U.S. Department of Energys (DOEs) energy efficiency programs in the buildings sector.
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