Development of Probabilistic Uncertainty Analysis Methodology for SRS Performance Assessments Maintenance Plan Activities

摘要

An initial uncertainty analysis of the Performance Assessment (PA) model of the Savannah River Site (SRS) trench disposal unit was conducted. Selected input data values were varied for both flow and transport analyses to generate input sets called realizations. Outputs of fluxes to the water table and well concentrations were compared to results from the PA. This stage of the uncertainty analysis served as a prototype for future work. The focus was to lay the foundation for a more comprehensive analysis, generate a limited set of output results, and learn about the process and potential problems.